Mass Recall Backfires: Half of the Public Does Not Want President Lai to Seek Re-Election
Comprehensive Report by Taiwan Weekly, August 4, 2025
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been severely impacted by its recent recall campaign failure, with multiple new polls showing a steep decline in public support for President Lai Ching-te. According to the latest data, President Lai’s approval rating dropped by 10 percentage points in July to around 30 percent, while disapproval surged past 50 percent, also up by 10 points. Public trust in President Lai fell to just 30 percent, and nearly half of respondents opposed his re-election.
A poll released by digital newsletter My Formosa on July 31 showed that 34.6 percent of respondents were satisfied with President Lai’s performance, while 56.6 percent expressed dissatisfaction—marking the first time disapproval has crossed the 50 percent threshold. Premier Cho Jung-tai’s approval rating stood at 28.3 percent, with 50.2 percent expressing dissatisfaction.
In terms of trust, 37.2 percent said they trust President Lai, while 50.3 percent said they do not, including 35.5 percent who reported strong distrust. Regarding President Lai’s remaining two years in his current term, 22.2 percent of respondents felt optimistic about his performance, while 63.6 percent felt pessimistic. When asked whether they would support President Lai’s re-election based on his current performance, only 34.3 percent said yes, compared to 54.9 percent who said no.
Support for Taiwan’s three major political parties also shifted. The DPP’s favorability rating fell to 32.7 percent, with unfavorability rising to 53.5 percent. Compared to the previous poll, this marks a 7.8-point drop in favorability and an 8.5-point increase in unfavorability. The Kuomintang (KMT) received a favorability rating of 32.7 percent, up 6.4 points, and an unfavorability rating of 46.6 percent, down 7 points. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) saw 33.2 percent favorability, up 5.5 points, and 42.1 percent unfavorability, down 8.8 points.
On the same day, the Zhen Media released another poll conducted after the failed recall. It showed that 35.5 percent of respondents were satisfied with President Lai’s performance, while 50.4 percent were dissatisfied—a 10.4-point drop in satisfaction and a 9.8-point increase in dissatisfaction from the previous month.
The survey also indicated that 53.1 percent of respondents support a cabinet reshuffle, with 26.8 percent calling for cabinet resignation. Only 18.6 percent believed no changes were needed. Among DPP supporters, 32.3 percent favored partial cabinet changes, while 7.9 percent supported a full resignation.
In an open-ended question on the reasons for the recall’s failure, the top four responses were: lack of legitimacy in the recall effort (16.1 percent), dissatisfaction over the DPP’s opposition to distributing NT$10,000 (about US$335) cash payments (14 percent), disappointment in the Lai administration or protest voting (7.8 percent), and poor performance by President Lai during Typhoon Danas and the resulting flood inspections (6.7 percent).
Chairman You Ying-lung of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation noted that both polls showed President Lai’s approval dropping by 10 points and disapproval rising by 10 points in July, resulting in a 20 to 22 point net negative swing. He called this a major shift in national sentiment, especially following the failed recall, and warned that it should not be underestimated.
You further calculated that one percentage point represents approximately 195,000 people. Based on this, President Lai may have lost up to 2 million supporters in a month, while the DPP lost over 1.4 million supporters—both unprecedented losses.
You attributed the drop to three main factors: the direct fallout from the failed recall, which reflected broader dissatisfaction projected onto the president and ruling party; the administration’s inadequate response to the recall crisis; and unresolved public anger over the government’s handling of Typhoon Danas and related flooding in southern Taiwan.